Home » Pakhotin et al. 2014

Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes

Pakhotin I. P., A. Y. Drozdov, Y. Y. Shprits, R. J. Boynton, D. A. Subbotin, M. A. Balikhin, (2014), Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes, J. of Geophys. Res. [Space Physics], 119, 8073-8086, doi:10.1002/2014JA020238

Abstract

AbstractThis study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed.

Authors (sorted by name)

Balikhin Drozdov Shprits Subbotin

Journal / Conference

Journal Of Geophysical Research (Space Physics)

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful for the support from STFC, EPSRC, and The Royal Society. The authors would like to acknowledge the efforts of the Van Allen probes team in creating the data products for the MagEIS instrument and also the work done by the GOES team. Contribution toward this work from Adam Kellerman has been greatly appreciated. The work at UCLA was supported by the Lab Fee grant, NASA grants NNX10AK99G and NNX13AE34G, and NSF grant AGS‐1203747.

Grants

AGS‐1203747 NNX10AK99G NNX13AE34G

Bibtex

@article{doi:10.1002/2014JA020238,
author = {Pakhotin, I. P. and Drozdov, A. Y. and Shprits, Y. Y. and Boynton, R. J. and Subbotin, D. A. and Balikhin, M. A.},
title = {Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics},
year ={2014},
volume = {119},
number = {10},
pages = {8073-8086},
keywords = {radiation belts, space weather},
doi = {10.1002/2014JA020238},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014JA020238},
eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2014JA020238},
abstract = {AbstractThis study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed.}
}