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Real-time Radiation Belt Forecast

Real time forecast

Two-day ensemble radiation belt forecast of 1 MeV electrons using the data-assimilative VERB code, real-time ARASE, ACE, GOES and POES data. Kp index for the previous 7 days is obtained from GFZ recent and previous month nowcast. 3-day ensemble Kp forecast is obtained from PAGER Work Package 3 (As a part of European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 870452 (PAGER)). Forecasts are conducted automatically every hour on spacepager processing server at GFZ. The code computes the nowcast and forecast fluxes from reanalysis directly using the T89 magnetic field model.